Avoiding Armageddon 1

Avoiding Armageddon 1

Author

Bruce Riedel

In the 1980’s American enjoyed Pakistan’s support and won the war .

Now in twenty first century , America and Pakistan are an opposite sides in Afghanistan

TAMPA , FLORIDA IS a long way from South Asia , but in mid – 2011 I was there to attend a conference at the headquarters of the U.S. Central command on Pakistan as a guest of General David Petraeus , the U.S commander on Afghanistan. CENTCOM is the regional command of the that part of the U.S military whose area of responsibility includes Pakistan , but not India . I have been to CENTCOM many times over the past three decades to discuss American war plans and military missions . This time i was to review Pakistan ‘s role in supporting the Taliban movement in Afghanistan . My message was simple , the United States was fighting a proxy war with Pakistan in Afghanistan .

The audience was not thrilled with the message . They knew that i was right , but the hard truth of it was not eagerly welcomed by American commanders . After all only twenty five years ago the United States had fought a war against the Soviets in Afghanistan with Pakistan’s help . I was a junior player in that war effort , but even i could see that it would be much easier for the United States to win if Pakistan provided it and its allies with safe heavens along the border and a sanctuary in which to train and prepare to fight . In the 1980s President Ronald Reagan enjoyed Pakistan’s support and won the war . Now in twenty first century , America and Pakistan are an opposite sides in Afghan civil war . It’s a lot harder to envision success .

CENTCOM planners look at Pakistan from the west . It sits at the edge of their area of responsibility ( AOR ) , on the far end of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf ; consequently CENTCOM sees Pakistan primarily in terms of how its actions polices affact Afghanistan and the Gulf . Pakistan’s military leaders , of course , look primarily the other way , east toward India . They are obsessed with India and the threat they believe that it poses to their country . So America and Pakistan generals , and diplomats and spies for that matter , generally look at the world with different priorities . Sometimes they can find common grounds for short term reasons , like fighting communism in Kabul , but generally their strategic views are at odds with each other .

Avoiding Armageddon

The Carter and Reagan years

page 81 – 82